A tailored SEA methodology combining megatrend stress testing and Doughnut Economics to assess strategic visions and policy frameworks in municipal spatial policy plans.
Municipal spatial policy plans typically combine a long-term strategic vision with more detailed policy frameworks and actions. Yet SEA often applies similar assessment logic throughout the planning process, despite major differences in abstraction level. This poster presents a tailored SEA methodology developed and applied in several Flemish municipal spatial policy plans. The approach links each planning component to an assessment framework that matches its level of abstraction. For strategic visions, SEA is organised as a megatrends-based stress test. Six global megatrends, including climate change, demographic change, resource scarcity and societal transitions, are translated into local manifestations across four societal systems: spatial planning, mobility, energy and production & consumption. The strategic vision is then assessed for its ability to reduce or unintentionally reinforce long-term environmental pressures. For policy frameworks, a second assessment layer is introduced using principles derived from Doughnut Economics. This enables evaluation of how spatial policies contribute simultaneously to environmental boundaries and social foundations, moving beyond conventional impact prediction toward sustainability-oriented decision support. Drawing on applications in multiple municipal plans, the poster demonstrates how combining megatrend stress testing with a doughnut-based assessment framework helps reveal strategic risks, lock-ins, blind spots and sustainability trade-offs before policy choices become embedded.
Cedric Vervaet is a Principal Advisor at Antea Group Belgium, focusing on strategic environmental assessment, spatial policy planning, systems thinking, and sustainability transitions.