Impact Assessment (IA) and its related decision-making occurs largely in an immediate “present” context. Futures thinking (FT) beyond project lifespans and spatial footprints is rarely invoked, most especially as regards cumulative impact assessment and novel future contexts. FT uses many different approaches to unpack the wide diversity of future contexts, which may be plausible, to ensure that decisions taken today are “future-smart.” FT is thus much broader than prediction, which tends to be a single, linear projection forward of business as usual, wholly unsuited to our compounding polycrisis of climate change, biodiversity loss and ecosystems collapse, demographic change, urbanization, and energy, water, and food security challenges. Yet linear prediction still frames most development decision making, with little cognizance of pre-emptive future risk assessment, and little scope to realistically apply the precautionary principle in the face of future uncertainties.

The discipline of “futures-thinking” is relatively new and emerging generally, and specifically in an IA context. This course will introduce FT methodological approaches useful for IA and run through a series of hands-on interactive sessions on how to use FT approaches including horizon-scanning and scenarios. In addition, exercises will include interactive back-casting on case studies analyzing whether the use of FT approaches may have resulted in better decisions. Participants will be encouraged to bring potential case studies to the course.

Level: Advanced

Prerequisites: Participants should ideally have a minimum of 10 years’ practical professional experience in IA, and/or development planning and/or agency decision-making. Participants need sufficient experience to engage with complex, strategic, systems-oriented methodologies. In addition, participants will be requested to bring a large-scale, challenging case study for practical review and analysis.

Language: English

Duration: 1 day (19 April)

Min/Max: 20-30

Price: $330

Instructor: Professor Nicholas King, Independent Environmental Futurist, Consultant, and Trainer (South Africa) and Dr. Francini Van Staden, Directorate: Sustainability, Western Cape Government Department of Environmental Affairs & Development Planning (South Africa)

Professor Nicholas King is an independent consultant in futures thinking and strategic planning, with over 30 years’ experience in global to local change analysis for planning and policy development. He consults, trains and teaches on futures and systems thinking, scenarios development, and leadership needs for the 21st century, facilitating ‘future-proofing’ of policies through incorporating risk and resilience considerations into strategic foresight planning. He works with governments, business, NGOs and local communities in numerous countries, focusing increasingly on inter-generational equity and the need for transformative pathways for positive emergence from industrial societal collapse.

Nick’s experience includes contributions to IPCC and IPBES Assessments, being Co-Chair of the Science & Policy Advisory Panel for UNEP’s GEO6, and GEO7 global assessments. He was a member of the Science Advisory Panel for the UN’s Global Synthesis Report: Making Peace with Nature, in 2021, and in 2023 was appointed to the UN’s first Global Foresight Panel, which produced the Navigating New Horizons Report for the UN General Assembly. He has recently been appointed to the IPCC’s Scientific Steering Committee on exploring diverse knowledges and assessment methods. Nick has worked extensively in development planning globally, and formally with the International Association of Impact Assessment (IAIA) in a number of significant ways over the past three decades, presenting and running workshops at numerous annual IAIA Conferences, served a term on the Board, a term as Chair of the Biodiversity Section and was a Co-Founder of the Climate Change Section. In 2018, he was awarded IAIA’s Individual Award “in recognition of his ongoing contributions internationally to the fields of environmental assessment and management”.

Dr Francini van Staden is a sustainability policy practitioner with over 20 years of experience across government, the private sector, and cross-sector platforms, working in environmental governance, sustainability transitions, climate resilience, and integrated planning. Her work focuses on translating complex environmental and economic considerations into practical governance approaches, with expertise in sustainability policy, procurement, systems thinking, and capacity building.

Francini leads the Sub-directorate: Sustainability Integration and Reporting in the Western Cape Government’s Department of Environmental Affairs and Development Planning. Her work has included leading the development of the Western Cape Environmental Implementation Plans and State of Environment Outlook Reports, as well as the province’s Green Economy Smart Procurement Programme. From this work, she led South Africa’s first national SDG 12.7.1 reporting process in 2025.

She also serves as Global Circular Economy Advisory Co-Lead for the UN One Planet Network Sustainable Public Procurement Programme, contributing to international knowledge exchange on sustainable procurement and circular economy approaches. Her earlier experience includes environmental assessment, compliance, and stakeholder engagement in the private sector, and she continues to contribute to research, teaching, and professional development in environmental assessment and sustainability.