A review of Korea's EIA and CCIA cases identifies methodological issues in emissions and mitigation assessments relevant to linking the NDC to project decisions.
Linking Korea's nationally determined contribution (NDC) to project decisions requires credible estimates of emissions and mitigation potential. Drawing on first-year findings from an ongoing study to improve Korea's Climate Change Impact Assessment (CCIA) system, we examine greenhouse gas assessment methods used in Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) and CCIA.
We analysed 322 assessment cases from 2023-2025, covering direct and indirect operational emissions and losses of carbon stocks and sinks. Energy, industrial complex and urban development projects accounted for about 92% of the combined estimate. Including additional indirect sources and land-related carbon losses affected project types differently, highlighting the importance of assessment boundaries.
A review of 21 CCIA reports identified differences in methodological detail across sectors and reliance on statistical proxies for activity data. In some sectors, mitigation estimates adopted national or local policy reduction rates, while the quantitative effects of measures directly implemented by proponents were insufficiently specified. The findings show how assessment boundaries, available data and the basis of reduction estimates shape the information provided for project decisions. We discuss these methodological issues and their implications for strengthening the link between national mitigation targets and project decisions through CCIA.
Hyung-Min Lee is a Research Fellow at the Korea Environment Institute, working on greenhouse gas assessment and air quality modelling, with a PhD from the University of Colorado Boulder.