An assessment of 208 tailings failures (1960–2026) demonstrates that post-GISTM risk has relocated toward non-committed operators in developing regions rather than declining globally.
Introduction: Brazil's 2015 and 2019 disasters led to the 2020 GISTM. Six years later, global safety improvements remain unproven. This study assesses failure frequency, severity, and lethality (1960–2026), extreme weather links, and post-GISTM impacts.
Methodology: We analyzed 208 WISE Uranium failure records (181 dams/stacks, 27 related facilities). Events were classified by severity, trigger, ore, region, and ICMM membership. Mann-Kendall and Poisson tests, EM-DAT correlations, and pre-/post-2020 rate comparisons were applied.
Results & Conclusions: Failures grew 1.7%/year (p < 0.001), with severe events up 1.3%/year (p = 0.008). Fatalities dropped from 1,045 (1960s) to 144 since 2020 (126 in Myanmar); 8 events caused 71% of all 2,748 deaths. Heavy rain triggered 23% of failures and 52% of fatalities. Post-August 2020, only 1 of 32 failures involved a GISTM-committed firm, with no ICMM fatalities. However, the 2020s already show record failures for this cycle point (35; p = 0.002), 86% in Asia, Africa, and South America. Latin America shows 3 patterns: Chilean quakes (copper), artisanal/co-op failures (Peru/Bolivia), and lethal iron ore dams (Brazil, 64% fatal).
Tailings risk has shifted rather than vanished, concentrating outside formal governance. Progress requires extending standards to mid-tier and state operators, rainfall early warning systems, and a global dam registry.
Sustainability Manager at HIDROBR. His doctoral research focused on critical infrastructure resilience under climate crisis, informing his work on mining disaster risk and tailings governance.